Latinos in Pennsylvania: Division in Election Day

November 5, 2024 – Pennsylvania is a "swing state" that has garnered significant attention from both candidates during their election campaigns. The latest poll, conducted last weekend, shows a tie between the two contenders. The winner will secure the 19 electoral votes from the state, which could be crucial in the overall election outcome. The Latino population is an important voting bloc that both candidates are eager to win over. This demographic has been growing in Pennsylvania, increasing from 206,000 in 2020 to approximately 620,000, according to government census figures. Federal authorities report that 1 million residents in Pennsylvania voted by early voting, with 56% registered as Democrats, 33% as Republicans, and the remaining 11% identifying with other parties; however, these figures are mostly anecdotal and the reasons for voting behaviors vary. In some states, Election Day is not considered a regular working day, leading companies to encourage employees to vote early. Nationwide, early voting saw a turnout of 79 million voters. During our visit to Allentown, a former steel city grappling with high poverty rates, we observed that lower annual household incomes might influence some Latinos to vote for Trump

NOTE This story has been updated on 6, November

Pedro is just playing the fool. Wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with the word "Champion," he flaunts his weight and the shape of his belly, joking with the customers at the restaurant where he works. "So, are we no longer friends?" he teases a regular customer who walks in without saying hello but manages to smile back. Beneath the humor lies a deeper pain. "I’ve been living in Allentown for 25 years, and I don’t know... Nothing to do; I’m not happy," he reflects.

A quarter of a century ago, he crossed the Mexican border at night, having paid a smuggler a significant amount of money. Since then, he has struggled to fully integrate, as highlighted by his broken English, which carries a thick accent. Although Latinos now number 63.6 million, representing 19.1% of the total U.S. population, Pedro’s situation deviates from the typical Latino profile. He did not finish high school, with 73.1% of Latinos earning a diploma compared to 94.2% of non-Hispanic whites. Together with his wife, their household income is slightly below the median of $65,882, in contrast to $80,404 for non-Hispanic whites.

Pedro mumbles a few grievances about Biden, whom he blames for worsening his economic situation. Is this an indication for the upcoming vote? Pennsylvania is part of the "Blue Wall," indicating that Republicans are unlikely to gain ground here. Trump won the state in 2016 by a margin of 40,000 votes, but Biden reclaimed it in 2020, winning by 81,000 votes. In the 2022 midterm elections, Pennsylvania defied the Republican wave, sending two Democrats to the Senate. "Nothing is guaranteed here; it’s blue, sometimes very pale," observes Mike, a senior citizen.

The town of Allentown is covered in Harris banners. The two candidates have invested more than elsewhere in communication budgets. Mayor Matt Tuerk became the first Latino to hold the position in 2022, as the city's demographic makeup shifted to a Latina majority among its 125,000 residents.  A Democrat, this grandson of Cuban immigrants defeated his Democratic rival, the incumbent mayor, a non-Hispanic white in the primaries and won a so-called historic election that makes him the first Latino mayor.

His economic skills, at the service of development organizations, may have made the difference, as the poverty rate of this city, once the jewel of the steel industry, reaches 21.4%. In terms of daily social life, the city is bilingual. Miguel, a police officer, and Juan, an accountant, alternate between English and Spanish in conversations with their sons.

The two representatives of the second generation, both of whom hold a bachelor's degree (equivalent to a degree obtained after 2 to 4 years of college), view university education as an important goal for their children. They identify as Americans and patriots, but their heritage is Latin. This identity is evident in some advertisements that are written in Spanish, serving as a challenge to non-Hispanic whites and encouraging them to learn the language. Demographers predict that Spanish will be as widely spoken in the U.S. as English within the next decade. As cars drive by with windows open, Latin music spills out, and restaurant menus prominently feature Latin cuisine. Additionally, the community engages in discussions about soccer more than American football. However, it is important to note that this community is not homogeneous.

Local media outlets, such as WFMZ-TV, have maintained a neutral stance. The station broadcasts in Allentown, northeast of New Jersey, as well as in the Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia. Founded in 1954 and owned by the Maranatha Broadcasting Company, WFMZ-TV generates revenue primarily from advertising. The Associated Press (AP) provides national news, while WFMZ-TV's local coverage is noted for avoiding partisan bias, according to a specialized website. The print publication The Morning Call, which has been a prominent source of news for over a century, closed its doors but remained accessible online for a few months in 2024. This commitment to neutrality has become characteristic of media outlets like the Washington Post.

“It is the defiance of politics and politicians that has become dominant. All politicians belong to the same category,” says Miguel. He questions whether abstention in voting could be considered a significant victory today. Trump, who campaigned in Allentown, much like Harris, believes that the “Blue Wall” could crumble. “He has supporters, particularly among lower-income families who feel their purchasing power has diminished under Biden,” comments Juan, who plans to vote for Harris. In this context, the division among voters seems to stem more from social class and income levels than from ethnic composition. Trump has managed to gain support among those with lower wages.