DATA JOURNALISM

How Latinos Voted in the 2024 U.S. Elections

 

TWO POST ELECTION STUDIES

2024 Post-Election Survey: Racial Analysis of 2024 Election Results

The role of the Latino vote in the 2024 election | WUSF

We analyze exit polls and surveys from various sources across California, Pennsylvania and nationwide.

NATIONWIDE

I AP VoteCast

AP VoteCast interviewed more than 120,000 voters across the U.S. from October 28 to November 5, continuing until poll close.

WHAT IS AP VOTECAST?

AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 120,000 interviews with registered voters in all 50 states, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal, and The Associated Press. Interviews took place from Oct. 28 – Nov. 5, concluding as polls closed on Election Day.

Voters were interviewed in English and Spanish. The survey highlights the views of people who voted, as well as registered voters who chose not to vote, and includes voters who cast their ballot by mail, early, absentee, or in person.

How Latinos Voted in the 2024 U.S. Elections

On November 5, voters in United States, including 36 million Latinos, were eligible to go to the polls for presidential and legislative elections. 

GRAPHS  1,2,3,4,5

 II AS/CO

The AS/CO forum released on  November 6^th an analysis on  how latinos voted  in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election based on AP Pojections

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/how-latinos-voted-2024-us-presidential-elec

Main findings: “Exit polls suggest that Donald Trump achieved a record share of the vote of Latinos, though a majority still voted for Kamala Harris.

Donald Trump may have broken a Latino voting record for a Republican candidate in his 2024 presidential victory. With 42 percent of this bloc’s vote according to AP projections, Trump bested George W. Bush’s 2004 performance among this demographic, which today accounts for about 15 percent of the total U.S. voting population.

With 56 percent of the Latino vote, Kamala Harris continued the trend of Democratic majorities. However, Trump’s share of the Latino vote is a major improvement from his first presidential campaign in 2016 where he only captured 28 percent of the bloc’s votes and in 2020 when he captured 32 percent.  

Of course, the Latino vote is large and diverse—spanning backgrounds, geography, and socioeconomics. Still, Trump made gains across the board. Of particular note, Trump won  47 percent of votes among Latino men, according to AP projections. He also produced double digit gains in majority-Hispanic counties along the Mexico border in Texas and in Southern Florida. “

SOURCES

About AS/COA | AS/COA

Seated in New York City, Washington D.C. and Miami,

 Americas Society (AS) is the premier forum dedicated to education, debate, and dialogue in the Americas. Council of the Americas (COA) is an international business organization whose members share a common commitment to economic and social development, open markets, the rule of law, and democracy throughout the Western Hemisphere.

POSSIBLE VARIABLE OF LATINO VOTE

Latino Voters' Views of the 2024 Election | Pew Research Center

In Latino communities, surveys show that 46 percent of people perceive migrants as contributing to crime – a narrative Trump has pushed – but the same number see them as not contributing to crime, according to the Pew Research Center.

This is largely split down party lines. Latino Republicans (72 percent) say the migrant situation is leading to more crime, much higher figures than Latino Democrats (33 percent).

CALIFORNIA

 

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund is a nation’s leading non-partisan, non-profit organization “that facilitates the full participation of Latinos in the American political process, from citizenship to public service”according to the organization’s site. On September 12, 2024, NALEA released a report examining several aspects of California’s Latino electorate and its registered voters. California’s Latino eligible electorate has grown significantly, and the report provides an overview of it and the state’s Latino registered voters. Latinos are the state’s largest population group, accounting for 40 percent of all Californians (15,7 million). Furthermore, at least 4.8 million Latinos in California, were expected to vote on November 5^th. “There is no doubt that the Latino electorate in California is an established powerhouse that will be a key player in deciding the outcomes of state and federal races; and with more and more Latinos turning 18 each year, local public officials and state leaders must ensure that their policies take into consideration and advance the well-being of all Latinos in the state.” — NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas  said.

Press release 9_12_24_-_NEF_Release_-_CA_Eligible_Electorate_Portrait_-_FINAL.pdf

CA_Latino_Eligible_Electorate_Portrait_-_Final.pdf

FACTS (report)

This report examines key aspects of the California Latino eligible electorate and its registered voters and provides information about its growth between 2012 and 2022. The report also highlights some critical differences between the Latino and non-Latino eligible electorate.  

: • Age: The California Latino eligible electorate tends to be younger than the non-Latino eligible electorate, with 18–24-year-olds comprising 19.3 percent of these Latinos, compared to 9.5 percent of non-Latinos. In contrast, 51.2 percent of the non-Latino eligible electorate is 50 and older, compared to 31.9 percent of Latinos.

 

• Educational Attainment: California’s Latino eligible electorate tends to have lower levels of formal educational attainment than non-Latinos. Nearly half of these Latinos (49.2 percent) have a high school education or less, compared to 24.7 percent of non-Latinos. In contrast, only 17.8 percent of these Latinos have a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to nearly half (44.4 percent) of non-Latinos.
• Housing: California’s Latino eligible electorate is less likely to be homeowners and more likely to be renters than non-Latinos. Slightly over half (55.6 percent) of these Latinos are homeowners, compared to 64.0 percent of non-Latinos. In contrast, 40.7 percent of these Latinos are renters, compared to 31.5 percent of non-Latinos.
• Health Insurance Coverage: California’s Latino eligible electorate is more likely to lack health insurance coverage than non-Latinos, with 8.0 percent of these Latinos lacking coverage compared to 3.6 percent of non-Latinos.
• Employment: California’s Latino eligible electorate is somewhat more likely to be employed than non-Latinos, with 65.8 percent of these Latinos employed compared to 59.7 percent of non-Latinos. The report also compares low-income Latinos (those with annual household incomes of less than $40,000) in the state’s eligible electorate with higher-income Latinos.  RESULTS GRAPH 8

PENNSYLAVIA

Graphs 6 and 7